Trump Battles History in 2017

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Whatsapp / by Brian Maher • January 26, 2017

Fact #1: The Fed expects to raise rates three times this year.

Fact #2: History says Trump will experience a recession during his first year in office.

Either the Fed is wrong or history is wrong. If No. 1 happens it means No. 2 didn’t. If it’s No. 2, No. 1 is out.

Which is more likely? First No. 1…

The latest “dot plot” shows the Fed expects to hike rates three times this year. And in a recent speech in San Francisco Janet Yellen said the Fed expects to raise rates “a few times a year” until rates near 3% by the end of 2019.

“Labor utilization is close to its estimated longer-run normal level,” she babbled. Babbling further: “We are closing in on our 2% inflation objective.”

Just so. But consider…


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