Regime Collapse and a US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

mauldineconomics.com / BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND KAMRAN BOKHARI / MAY 1, 2017

There is a paradox when it comes to perceptions about Afghanistan. No one would disagree that after 15 years the Afghan state built by the West remains ineffective. Yet, no one is willing to acknowledge that if present trends continue the logical outcome will be regime collapse.

Kabul is unable to thwart a growing jihadist insurgency dominated by the Taliban. It also is unable to prevent the Islamic State from expanding its footprint in the country. Worse is that increased factional infighting is gutting the Afghan political system from the inside.

In the past two weeks, two top American security officials have traveled to Afghanistan. The first to visit was National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster on April 16. A week later, Defense Secretary James Mattis arrived in the Afghan capital on an unannounced visit. These trips came on the heels of a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb that was dropped on an Islamic State facility in eastern Afghanistan on April 13.

The developments come as the administration of US President Donald Trump is engaged in a bottom-up review of US military commitment… not just in Afghanistan but across the

Read more ... source: The Bitcoin Channel

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