Price Analysis 04/09: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, BNB, EOS, BSV, XMR, XLM
Asset managers VanEck and SolidX plan to offer a limited version of their Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to qualified institutional buyers. While the wait for retail investors continues, institutional players might get an opportunity to buy the shares starting on Sept. 5. This is a positive development because a strong demand from institutional players might help in expediting approval for a full-fledged Bitcoin ETF for retail investors.
The uncertainty of the trade war between the United States and China, endless money printing and negative yields around the world are all driving institutional investors toward safe haven assets, one of them being Bitcoin. This can be one of the reasons for the continuous increase in Bitcoin’s dominance.
So, is this a good time to buy Bitcoin or will the recovery fizzle out and the price fall to lower levels? Let’s analyze the charts.
The bounce in Bitcoin from close to the strong support of $9,080 has risen above both moving averages, which is a positive sign. However, bulls are facing resistance just below the $11,000 mark. Both moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is just above the midpoint. This points to a consolidation in the near term.
In a range, it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout. If bulls push the price above the downtrend line of the symmetrical triangle, a breakout and rally to the yearly high of $13,973.50 will be in the cards.
Conversely, if bears sink the BTC/USD pair below $9,080, it can drop to the next support at $7,451.63. Inside the triangle, the price action is likely to remain volatile. Therefore, we suggest traders avoid buying inside the triangle and wait for the breakout before initiating a long position as recommended in our previous analysis.
The relief rally in Ether (ETH) is facing resistance at the downsloping 20-day EMA. This shows that the trend is still down. The bears will now try to sink the price below the recent low of $163.755. If successful, the downtrend can extend to $150.
The first sign of a change in trend will be a breakout above the 20-day EMA. Above this, the next resistance will be at the 50-day SMA. If bulls propel the price above both moving averages, a rally to $235.70 is likely. We will wait for a new buy setup to form before recommending a long position in the ETH/USD pair.
The recovery in XRP is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA. Since June 27, every pullback has turned down from the 20-day EMA. This shows that bears are in command. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone shows that the trend is down.
The bears will now try to sink the XRP/USD pair below the $0.225–$0.24508 support zone. If successful, the pair will resume its downtrend and plunge to $0.19. Contrary to our assumption, if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, a move to the 50-day SMA is possible. Such a move will indicate that bears are losing their grip. We will wait for the trend to change before recommending a long position.
The bounce from the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern has reached the 20-day EMA. If the price scales above the 20-day EMA, it will re-enter the ascending channel. If Bitcoin Cash (BCH) sustains inside the channel, it will indicate that the current fall to the neckline was a bear trap.
Conversely, if the BCH/USD pair turns down from current levels, bears will again attempt to plummet it below the neckline. If successful, the pair will become very negative and can slump to $166.98 and below it to $105. However, both moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is just below 50, which points to a consolidation in the short term. We do not find any reliable buy setups at current levels, hence, we remain neutral on it.
The pullback in Litecoin (LTC) is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA. Both moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is in negative territory, which shows that bears have the upper hand. The bears will now attempt to sink the price to the next support at $58.
On the other hand, bulls will try to propel the LTC/USD pair above the 20-day EMA. If successful, it will indicate a likely change in trend from down to range-bound. We anticipate the pair to gain momentum after it sustains above the downtrend line. As the trend is down, we will wait for a reversal pattern to form before recommending a trade in it.
The pullback in Binance Coin (BNB) could not even reach the breakdown level of $24.1709, which is a bearish sign. It shows that bulls anticipate a fall to lower levels and hence, are not buying at these levels. The downtrending moving averages and RSI close to the oversold zone indicate that the bears are in command.
The bears will now attempt to sink the BNB/USD pair to the next support of $18.30. This is an important level to watch out for because if it cracks, the pair will enter a strong downtrend. However, if the price turns around from current levels or from $18.30 and rises above the 50-day SMA, it will indicate a change in trend. Until then, we suggest traders remain on the sidelines.
The pullback in EOS hit a wall at the 20-day EMA on Sept. 3. This shows that sentiment is to sell on rallies. If the price turns down from the current levels and plunges below $3.06, it will resume its down-move and drop to $2.76 and below it to $2.20. The downtrending moving averages and RSI in negative territory suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
Our bearish view will be invalidated if bulls push the price above the moving averages and sustain it for three days. Such a move will indicate that the breakdown below $3.30 was a bear trap. Above the 50-day SMA, the EOS/USD pair can rally to $4.8719. This is an important resistance, above which the pair can start a new uptrend. We will wait for a reliable buy setup to form before proposing a trade in it.
The bulls have not been able to propel Bitcoin SV (BSV) above the 20-day EMA with conviction. This shows a lack of demand at higher levels. Both moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is just below 50, which points to a consolidation in the near term.
On the downside, a break below $120 can plummet the BSV/USD pair to the critical support of $107. A breakdown of this level can result in panic selling that can drag the price back to $92.933 and below it to $48.64. On the other hand, if bulls push the price above the 50-day SMA, the pair might pick up momentum and attempt a rally to $188.69. We do not find a reliable buy setup at current levels, hence, we are not suggesting a trade in it.
The short-term trend in Monero (XMR) is down. It is currently facing selling at the breakdown level of the symmetrical triangle. The 20-day EMA, which is sloping down, is also located just above the trendline of the triangle, hence, this becomes an important resistance to watch out for.
If the XMR/USD pair again breaks below $72, a retest of $65.7316 will be in the cards. Below this level, the decline can extend to $60. Conversely, if bulls push the price back into the triangle, it will indicate buying at lower levels. We will wait for the pair to sustain above the trendline of the triangle before proposing a trade in it.
Stellar (XLM) is stuck in a very tight range for the past five days. Failure of bulls to push the price back above $0.065 is a bearish sign. This shows that buyers are not confident that a bottom is in place yet.
Both moving averages are trending down and the RSI is close to oversold levels. This suggests that bears are in command. The next support on the downside is at $0.058325 and below it, the fall can extend to $0.05. Our bearish view will be invalidated if the XLM/USD pair reverses direction from current levels and rises above both moving averages. As the trend is down, we suggest traders remain on the sidelines.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.